Political analyst and Democratic pollster Doug Schoen tells Newsmax that President Barack Obama is in “deep trouble,” and if the election were held today he “would be a one-term president.”
But Schoen also says it is too early to anoint current Republican front-runner Rick Perry as the GOP nominee for 2012 because “anything can happen in this election.”
Schoen is co-author, along with pollster Scott Rasmussen, of the book “Mad As Hell: How the Tea Party Movement Is Fundamentally Remaking Our Two-Party System.”
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Three polls over a recent 8-day period have shown Texas Gov. Perry enjoying a significant lead over former front-runner Mitt Romney, with two of the polls putting Perry ahead by double digits.
In an exclusive interview with Newsmax.TV, Schoen was asked what he thinks of the poll results considering that Perry has been formally in the race for only about two weeks.
“I think it shows how dissatisfied the Republican electorate is with the other seven or eight candidates, and how they’re looking for a fresh face to take on President Obama,” he says.
Questions have been raised about Perry’s ability to garner support among moderate Republicans. Schoen comments: “In the primaries he doesn’t really need moderate Republicans because the bulk of the voters are conservative, but in the general election he’ll certainly have to broaden his appeal.”
One recent poll pitting Obama against Perry shows the two in a dead heat. Schoen agrees that Perry is a “formidable” candidate, but cautions: “I think this poll reflects more the weakness of Obama than the strength of Governor Perry. It remains to be seen if Perry develops the kind of broad-based appeal he’ll need to win the presidency.
“Right now it looks like a Perry-Obama race, but a few months ago it looked like Donald Trump was the front–runner, then Mitt Romney, then Michele Bachmann, so anything can happen in this election.”
Schoen was asked, given Perry’s strong showing so far, if it is too early to say Obama is in trouble.
“I think Barack Obama is in deep trouble,” Schoen declares.
“At this point he is being hurt and hurt seriously by the weak economy. He’s going to have a jobs speech in September. He’s going to talk about revitalizing the economy. It’s anyone’s guess if that will make an impact. But as we sit here today, bottom line, I think you’d have to say the economy is a dramatic drag on his presidency.
“I think he would be a one-term president if the election were held today.”
Angry that Democrats are ignoring union issues, AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka has announced that the nation's largest labor federation is cutting its ties with the Democratic Party and President Barack Obama heading into 2012, and instead it will set up a super PAC to pick and support its own candidates.
Asked if this is a huge blow to Obama, Schoen responds: “Absolutely. Obama needs to get labor back and I think he’ll be courting them furiously in the weeks and months to come.”
As to what lies ahead for the crowded Republican field, Schoen tells Newsmax: “I think the field is weak. If they have a contentious primary, which looks increasingly likely, it could paint the Republicans as an even more divided and arguably extreme party than they’ve been seen as already.
“President Obama is weak, and I think what he is counting on is that Republicans will be weaker and less well regarded than he is.
Schoen opines that Sarah Palin won’t enter the presidential race, and says Michele Bachmann is “fading.” He adds: “Perry has hurt her badly and she will be out of the race if she doesn’t win Iowa.”
Schoen co-authored an op-ed piece in Thursday’s Wall Street Journal predicting that a third-party candidate will enter the race. Asked if such a candidate can win the general election, Schoen says: “Yes, I think a third party can conceivably win.”
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