Missouri Senate: Blunt 47%, Carnahan 41%

Friday, 12 Mar 2010 11:54 AM

 

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Republican Roy Blunt continues to hold a slight lead over Democrat Robin Carnahan in Missouri’s contest for the U.S. Senate. These findings and the high level of opposition to the national health care plan in the state perhaps help to explain why Carnahan wasn’t around yesterday when President Obama came to Missouri to pitch his plan.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state finds Blunt leading Carnahan 47% to 41%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided. Those figures are little changed from a month ago.

Opposition to the health care plan is higher in Missouri than it is nationally. Just 37% of voters in the state approve of the plan working its way through Congress, while 60% oppose it. These numbers include 21% who Strongly Favor it and 51% who Strongly Oppose.

Thirty-three percent (33%) in Missouri rate Obama’s handling of health care reform as good or excellent. Fifty-three percent (53%) say he’s done a poor job.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

Sixty percent (60%) of Missouri voters say it would be better to pass smaller health care bills that address individual problems rather than a comprehensive bill like the one currently under consideration. Only 26% think a comprehensive bill is a better idea.

When it comes to health care decisions, 49% fear the federal government more than private insurance companies, but nearly as many (43%) fear private insurers more.

Fifty-eight percent (58%) of Missouri voters think it would be better for the country if most congressional incumbents were not reelected this November. But 38% say their own local representative deserves reelection, although 30% disagree.

Forty-three percent (43%) have a favorable opinion of the Tea Party movement. Thirty percent (30%) view the movement unfavorably. Only 17% of voters in the state, however, consider themselves a part of the Tea Party movement.

John McCain squeaked by Obama 50% to 49% to win Missouri in the 2008 presidential election. Forty-two percent (42%) of voters in the state now approve of the job Obama is doing as president while 56% disapprove. This gives Obama a job approval rating in the state roughly comparable to findings nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Male voters in Missouri remain more supportive of Blunt than Carnahan, and the two continue to break even among female voters. Those not affiliated with either major party prefer Blunt by a two-to-one margin.

Blunt, a longtime U.S. Congressman, is viewed very favorably by 14% and very unfavorably by 13%. Just seven percent (7%) have no opinion of the longtime U.S. congressman.

Twenty-two percent (22%) have a very favorable opinion of Carnahan, who is currently Missouri’s secretary of state. Twenty-three percent (23%) view her very unfavorably.

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

Missouri voters are evenly divided over the future direction of the economy. Thirty-eight percent (38%) say it will be stronger a year from now, but the identical number (38%) expect it to worsen.

Thirty-eight percent (38%) believe it is still possible for anyone who wants to work to find a job in America, but 46% disagree.

Fifty-three percent (53%) approve of the job Governor Jay Nixon is doing, while 42% disapprove. This marks little change from last month.

In 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected nationally that Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama won 53% to 46%. Four years earlier, Rasmussen Reports projected the national vote totals for both George W. Bush and John Kerry within half-a-percentage-point.

In Missouri, Rasmussen Reports polled on two races during the 2008 campaign. In the race for president, Rasmussen polling showed McCain and Obama tied at 49% each. McCain ended up edging out Obama 50% to 49%. In the 2008 Missouri governor’s race, Rasmussen polling showed Nixon defeating Kenny Hulshof 57% to 38% and Nixon won 58% to 40%.

In the 2006 race for U.S. Senate, Rasmussen polling showed a toss-up with Jim Talent at 49% and Claire McCaskill at 48%. McCaskill won 49% to 47%. In the 2004 Presidential race, Rasmussen polling in Missouri showed George W. Bush defeating John Kerry 50% to 45%. Bush won the state 53% to 46%.



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