Barack Obama, his wife, and their two daughters acknowledge the crowd before Obama's speech at Headwaters Park in Fort Wayne, Ind., on Sunday.
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UTICA, New York – The Democratic Party presidential contests in Indiana and North Carolina remained remarkably stable on Sunday, with Illinois’ Barack Obama holding an 8-point lead in North Carolina and a statistically insignificant two-point lead in Indiana, the latest Zogby daily tracking telephone poll shows.
The survey of likely Democratic Party primary voters shows that in North Carolina, Obama leads with 48% support, compared to 40% for Clinton and 13% either undecided or preferring someone else. In Indiana, Obama is nursing a tiny lead of two points, winning 44% support, compared to 42% for Clinton and 15% unsure or wanting someone else.
Both candidates stumped for votes in Indiana Sunday, as the state’s voters prepare to cast ballots in Tuesday’s elections. Actually, early voting has been underway in both states for awhile (longer in North Carolina than in Indiana), and this latest Zogby polling shows one-quarter of North Carolina voters – 26% – have already voted, and 13% in Indiana have already cast ballots.
While Obama holds a small edge in Indiana, Clinton appears to hold at least a small advantage among those who are yet undecided. Among those undecided Indiana voters who said they were leaning toward one candidate or the other, Clinton held an edge. It also remains unclear what impact, if any, the new Indiana requirement that voters show identification before casting ballots will have on the contest.
More evidence of turmoil in Indiana: among those Hoosier voters who said they have changed their support in the last two weeks, one-third of them – 33% - said the recent statements of Barack Obama’s former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, made them less likely to support him.
In North Carolina, Obama enjoys solid leads in the cities of
Greensboro, Charlotte, and the “research triangle” area of Raleigh-Durham,” which contain large numbers of younger voters. He has done well across the country among voters in urban settings, while Clinton has done well among older and rural Democratic voters. Obama leads among the key demographic of voters age 35-54 by a 58% to 31% margin – which is dramatically different than how that age of voter acted in Pennsylvania two weeks ago. There, Clinton won among those voters. It is also important to note that Obama has made real inroads among voters age 55-69, where Clinton wins 44% and Obama wins 43% - a statistical tie.
Clinton leads among white voters in North Carolina, 55% to 34%, while Obama leads among African American voters, 77% to 10%.
In Indiana, Clinton leads among white voters, 46% to 39%, with 15% left unsure or supporting someone else. African Americans in the Hoosier state, which make up about 11% of the Democratic primary electorate, heavily favor Obama. Obama leads in Indianapolis by a 54% to 33% margin, while Clinton leads by a similar margin across southern Indiana. Across the northern tier of the state, including Gary in the west, South Bend, Elkhart, and Fort Wayne in the east, the pair are tied at 42% each.
Clinton holds a double-digit lead among Catholics, while Obama has gained a tiny two-point lead among Protestants.
Among voters age 55-64, Clinton leads by a 43% to 41% edge, which represents progress for Obama, who does much better among younger voters. Among those voters age 35-54, he leads by a 47% to 37% margin, also holding similar edges among voters under age 35.
The telephone surveys, conducted May 3-4, 2008, are the latest of Zogby’s two-day daily tracking surveys that will continue until the last release tomorrow morning. In North Carolina, 624 likely Democratic primary election voters were polled. The survey carries a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points. In Indiana, 636 likely voting Democratic primary voters were surveyed. That poll also carries a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points.
The telephone surveys were conducted using live operators working out of Zogby’s call center in Upstate New York.
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