Tags: Wiedemer | Obama | Romney | dividend

Wiedemer to Moneynews: Brace for ‘Big Dip’ in Stocks if Obama Re-elected

By    |   Tuesday, 23 Oct 2012 03:05 PM

Stocks could take a plunge if President Barack Obama is re-elected on Nov. 6; however, they could surge if GOP challenger Mitt Romney takes the White House, said Robert Wiedemer, financial commentator and best-selling author of "Aftershock."

Stocks have been falling hard during the last couple of days, as companies have been missing their third-quarter earnings, though more unsettling is that revenues have been coming in lower than expected, which reflects a cooling global economy.

An Obama win could make things worse on Wall Street.

“I think there will be a bounce if Romney gets elected. I think it could be a significant bounce. If Obama gets re-elected, that’s a big dip,” Wiedemer told Newsmax TV in an exclusive interview.

Watch our exclusive video. Story continues below.

“Whether it’s the Vegas odds or if it’s the word on the street, I think people are assuming that Obama is the likely one to win re-election. So I wouldn’t expect any type of bounce there. Obviously Wall Street is not a big fan of Obama, so you might even see a decline,” added Wiedemer, a managing director of Absolute Investment Management, an investment-advisory firm for individuals with more than $200 million under management.

“If you see Romney win, there will be a bounce. The question is how long will it last.”

The third-quarter earnings season is under way, and big companies like DuPont and 3M have missed revenue expectations.

Editor's Note: Economist Unapologetically Calls Out Bernanke, Obama for Mishandling Economy. See What They Did

Declining sales reflects a slowing global economy, and further downward revisions to year-end earnings that have hit the wire as of late have rattled nerves even more, sending stock indices plunging.

“Revenue growth was over 10 percent for the S&P 500 a year ago, and now we are probably going to head into negative revenue growth,” he said.

“This is a trend and it’s been trending down each quarter, so I think we are going to see that people are starting to wake up and see that there are some real problems in the world economy and in the U.S. economy, and that’s going to reflect to some degree on earnings now. But those revenue misses will definitely reflect earnings problems going forward.”

Turning to reports that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke might step down after his term ends in January 2014, Wiedemer said such a decision would come while the Fed could be battling major inflationary pressures.

The Fed has announced it will spend $40 billion a month buying mortgage-backed securities from banks to pump liquidity into the financial system in a way that pushes down interest rates across the broader economy to spur recovery, a monetary policy measure known as quantitative easing.

Editor's Note: Economist Unapologetically Calls Out Bernanke, Obama for Mishandling Economy. See What They Did

Side effects to such a policy tool include a weaker dollar, rising stock and commodity prices and mounting inflationary pressures.

The move comes in the wake of two previous rounds of quantitative easing rolled out under Bernanke that pumped a combined $2.3 trillion in inflation-fueling liquidity into the economy.

“I have always joked a little bit with people that the Fed pretty soon — within a few of years — is going to be between a rock and a hard place, where trying to keep interest rates down means printing a lot of money,” Wiedemer noted.

“That is going to create inflation, forcing interest rates up. The only way to beat that inflation is to basically pull that money back out of the system, which will raise interest rates,” he added. “Either way you are dead, you are between a rock and a hard place. Either inflation will push them up, or the Fed will have to push them up to kill inflation.”

So where should investors hide their money?

For those who think companies will bounce back at least for now, high-dividend stocks are a good place. For those who are a little more pessimistic, a mix of high-dividend stocks and gold make a good refuge.

“If you assume there is going to be a bounce back, the high-dividend stocks are not a bad place to be. I certainly like those,” Wiedemer said.

“If you think it is going to go slower, which is more like myself, I’d also hedge with a little bit of gold and maybe some high-dividend stocks. I can’t say the market is down for the count now.”

About Robert Wiedemer

Robert Wiedemer is a managing director of Absolute Investment Management, an investment-advisory firm for individuals with more than $200 million under management. He is a regular contributor to Financial Intelligence Report, the flagship investment newsletter of Newsmax Media. Click Here to read more of his articles. Discover more about his book, "Aftershock," by Clicking Here Now.

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Stocks could take a plunge if President Barack Obama is re-elected on Nov. 6; however, they could surge if GOP challenger Mitt Romney takes the White House, said author and financial commentator Robert Wiedemer.
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Tuesday, 23 Oct 2012 03:05 PM
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