Tags: Shilling | US | global | recession

Shilling: ‘We Are in a Recession’ Already

By Dan Weil   |   Tuesday, 14 Aug 2012 08:21 AM

Many experts believe that the economy is stuck in slow-growth mode, but economist A. Gary Shilling, president of economic research and forecasting firm A. Gary Shilling & Co., thinks it’s worse than that.

“We are in a recession in the U.S., and indeed it’s global, that we’re either in a recession or entering one,” he told Yahoo.

“If you look at the U.S., the problem is you haven’t had the income to support consumer spending. That really goes back to the weak employment.”

Editor's Note: Economist Warns: 50% Unemployment, 100% Inflation Possible

The unemployment rate increased to 8.3 percent in July from 8.2 percent in June.

“Consumers were on a mini spending spree last year, but now they’ve backed off,” Shilling said.

The latest Commerce Department numbers showed that consumer spending was unchanged in June after slipping 0.1 percent in May.

“We’ve had three consecutive months of declines in retail sales,” Shilling said. “That's happened 29 times since they started collecting the data in 1947, and in 27 of the 29 we were either in a recession or within three months of it.”

Talk of recession has percolated for each of the past three summers, only to fade away. But this time is different, thanks to the economic woes in Europe and China, Shilling says.

Money manager John Hussman also thinks global recession is at hand.

“Investors remain so addicted to the temporary high of monetary intervention that they continue to ignore a very real downturn in global economic indicators,” he wrote in a letter to investors.

Editor's Note: Economist Warns: 50% Unemployment, 100% Inflation Possible

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