Investing guru Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling, says the economy is in the same place it was six months ago — in the dumps.
The only thing that’s really changed is peoples' perception of economic recovery.
“Earlier, we had a very strong stock market, and that revived things like junk bonds and commodities and spread throughout the spectrum that had been very depressed since 2008 into 2009,” Shilling told Yahoo TechTicker.
Then the euro zone crisis hit, and perceptions changed “remarkably,” Shilling says.
People started worrying about what happens when the stimulus wears off and if there’s anything beyond rebound inventories to push the economy.
“I think what was in the cards the whole time was relatively slow growth … but perception certainly changed in a hurry,” Shilling says.
“I’d say the odds of double dip are probably below 50-50, but in an overarching reality, what’s going on here is we’re deleveraging in two sectors that had immense leverage on the upside.”
Some other experts are more bearish.
Bond expert Jeffrey Gundlach warns that the United States is headed for a double-dip recession.
The co-founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital LP, a Los Angeles-based bond fund manager, said the U.S. government will move to increase taxes next year in an attempt to balance the budget and alleviate the national debt of about $13 trillion, the Associated Press reported. The downside to that, however, is it will hammer the fragile economic recovery and push economic growth back into negative territory.
"I think you have a tax increase coming and a radical policy shock that will affect investments and the economy," he said during the opening keynote speech at the Morningstar Inc. annual investment conference in Chicago.
According to nuwireinvestor.com, Morgan Stanley says affordable mortgage rates should help the nation’s economy avoid a double dip recession by freeing up some consumer spending money.
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