Tags: Shilling | global | recession | markets

Gary Shilling: Global Recession Might Appear Next Year

By    |   Friday, 19 Oct 2012 09:07 AM

The economy and financial markets have split paths, with markets, particularly stocks, soaring, while economies languish.

That won’t last much longer, says prominent economist Gary Shilling.

“Either the economies of the world have got to come to life and rise to meet investor expectations, or investors have got to come down to earth,” he tells Yahoo. “The latter is more likely.”

Editor's Note: Economist Warns: 50% Unemployment, 100% Inflation Possible

And Shilling sees thing getting worse for economies around the world. “We could very well be in a global recession in 2013,” he says.

The economist acknowledges that signs of strength have emerged in the consumer and housing sectors, but notes that the industrial sector is weak, particularly exports.

“We certainly have had a lot of false starts,” Shilling says. “The overarching reality is that we’re going through a massive deleveraging.”

And it’s not going to end soon, he says. “My hunch is … at this rate it will take another five to seven years to complete that [deleveraging].” This is normal, as it usually takes 10 years to deleverage from a huge financial crisis, Shilling says.

Others agree.

“The deep, prolonged decline, and the slow halting recovery are inevitable after a major systemic financial crisis,” Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff, who has studied centuries of financial meltdowns, tells The Wall Street Journal.

The International Monetary Fund warned earlier this month in its economic outlook that “risks for a serious global slowdown are alarmingly high.”

Editor's Note: Economist Warns: 50% Unemployment, 100% Inflation Possible

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The economy and financial markets have split paths, with markets, particularly stocks, soaring, while economies languish. That won’t last much longer, says prominent economist Gary Shilling.
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2012-07-19
Friday, 19 Oct 2012 09:07 AM
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