Tags: roubini | halfway | recession

Roubini: Recession Less Than Half Over

By    |   Tuesday, 17 Mar 2009 10:40 AM

According to NYU economist Nouriel Roubini, after 15 months we’re not even halfway through this recession.

“We could end up ... with a 36-month recession that could be "L-shaped stagnation, or near depression,” Roubini told CNBC.

He puts the chance of a severe U-shaped recession at 66.7 percent, and a more severe L-shaped recession at 33.3 percent.

"Growth is going to be close to zero and unemployment rate well above 10 percent into next year,” Roubini says, adding that U.S. GDP next year could be zero and global GDP could be even less.

Roubini believes total losses could peak at $3.6 trillion in the financial system.

And, though he believes the risk of a total meltdown has been at least temporarily halted, Roubini says the economy is going through "a death by a thousand cuts" and that "most of the U.S. financial institutions are entirely insolvent."

Roubini — who says the “market friendly” solution is to temporarily nationalize banks and get them working again — also wants to fix the housing market by breaking every mortgage contract.

A recent Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey of 51 economic forecasters revealed that most expect recovery to come later this year.

Respondents said they believe that U.S. GDP will drop at a 5.3 percent annual rate during Q1, decline an additional 2 percent in Q2, begin an upward swing with 0.5 percent growth in Q3 and experience 1.8 percent growth in Q4.

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According to NYU economist Nouriel Roubini, after 15 months we’re not even halfway through this recession.“We could end up ... with a 36-month recession that could be "L-shaped stagnation, or near depression,” Roubini told CNBC. He puts the chance of a severe U-shaped...
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2009-40-17
Tuesday, 17 Mar 2009 10:40 AM
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