Tags: Rosenberg | Treasury | Market | Recession

David Rosenberg: Treasury Market Says Recession is Coming

Wednesday, 24 Aug 2011 12:58 PM

Yields on the 5-year Treasury notes are dipping below 1 percent, which means investors are flocking toward them and is a sign a recession is brewing, says David Rosenberg, chief economist for Gluskin Sheff & Associates.

The good news is that it won't be as bad as the one that punished the global economy about two years ago.

"When you have the 5-year note below 1 percent, the Treasury market is giving you a recessionary signal," Rosenberg tells CNBC.

"I don't think it's going to be nearly as catastrophic as what we had from the end of 2007 to early 2009 but it could last quite a long time because you have to consider that the government just doesn't have as many policy bullets as it did going into the last recession."

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What the government really needs to do once and for all to steer the country out of the economic doldrums is roll out a stimulus program that doesn't offer quick fixes like President Barack Obama's cash-for-clunkers program.

"For whatever reason, maybe it's more political, we're into a new era of fiscal austerity at a level of government instead of providing really more dramatic stimulus, which you could argue, Keynesian-wise, that the economy desperately needs," Rosenberg says.

Energy and the development of energy-related infrastructure is where recovery can be found.

"Whatever happened to the ballyhooed energy policy that we were supposed to be embarking on? We embarked on healthcare policy that froze the business sector in time, but what happened to energy policy?"

"If we had a policy aimed toward shale gas, toward getting ourselves off foreign oil, that would bring down the overall level energy costs — it would be an enormous tax cut for society in general."

Plus developing and improving the nation's energy supply would call for the one thing that everyone agrees is crucial for lasing economic recovery: jobs.

The Obama administration has brought up the idea but has yet to act.

"We can tie in a jobs plan, and an energy plan, and frankly I haven't seen that idea. I have seen the idea floated around but I haven't seen it implemented," Rosenberg says.

Many economists warn the U.S. is headed back into recession while many more say the country will avoid economic contraction but will grow at a lackluster pace in economic limbo, according to an Associated Press poll.

The survey of 43 economists shows that likelihood of a recession within the next 12 months is 26 percent, up from a June poll that put the likelihood at 15 percent.

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Yields on the 5-year Treasury notes are dipping below 1 percent, which means investors are flocking toward them and is a sign a recession is brewing, says David Rosenberg, chief economist for Gluskin Sheff Associates. The good news is that it won't be as bad as the one...
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Wednesday, 24 Aug 2011 12:58 PM
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