Tags: Risks | Global | Oil | Supply

Deutsche Bank: Risks to Global Oil Supply Rival Late 1970s

Friday, 17 Feb 2012 07:28 AM

A report from Deutsche Bank says the potential threats to the global oil supply — especially Iran's vow to close the Strait of Hormuz — haven't been this great since the Iranian Revolution and Iran-Iraq War three decades ago, CNBC reports.

“In our view, not since the late 1970s/early 1980s has there been such a serious threat to oil supply,” wrote Soozhana Choi, Deutsche Bank’s head of Asia commodities research, in a note to clients. “Our assertion is in part because of the Iranian threat to close the Strait of Hormuz.”

“We view potential Iranian disruption of shipping in the Strait as a low probability given the high damaging impact it would have on Iran itself,” said Choi.

“However, the mere utterance of such a threat is a grave concern for the oil market given the strategic importance of the Strait on a global scale.”

Though Deutsche Bank stopped short of predicting what could happen to oil prices if this or military action against Iran comes to pass, the bank’s report did note that the last four major oil disruptions (Gulf War I, Gulf War II, Iran-Iraq War, Iranian Revolution) caused Brent oil prices to jump 38 percent, on average, during these events.

According to trader Dennis Gartman, author of The Gartman Letter, the world is facing an over-supply of energy, not an undersupply.

“There may be trouble in the Persian Gulf or one of the other ‘hot spots’ around the world, but there is no tightness of supply given the huge new finds of oil and nat-gas,” says Gartman.

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2012-28-17
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