Tags: rbs | Global | Stocks | Commodities

RBS Warns: Global Stocks, Commodities to Crash

By Dan Weil   |   Wednesday, 30 Jun 2010 10:24 AM

Global stocks and commodities, outside of gold, are poised to crash amid continued woes for banks, according to RBS strategists.

Central banks will have to keep easing, which means Treasuries and gold will rise, while equities and commodities plummet, they wrote in a research note obtained by CNBC.

"Surely risks associated with us being wrong are low, i.e. (Treasury) rates stay where they are," wrote chief RBS credit strategist Andrew Roberts.

"But risks associated with us being right are 10 percent returns in 10-year Treasuries and at the same time that equities/commodities will collapse far beyond what even some equity bears anticipate."

So investors should rush to U.S., U.K. and German government bonds in that order, he says.

"Be long gold, think the unthinkable. Get ready for sub-2-percent yields on 10-year Treasuries.”

The 10-year yield recently stood at 3.02 percent.

Some experts say the stock rally has further to go, but RBS doesn’t see it that way.

"Call us old fashioned, but we will buy at low price/earnings ratios, and sell at high PEs,” the note said.

“So a PE now of 20 sits very uncomfortably.”

Many strategists disagree with RBS over the bond market’s direction.

The average forecast of strategists polled by Bloomberg calls for a 10-year yield of 3.74 percent by year-end.

Treasuries represent “our least-favored segment of the bond market,” Citi Global Wealth Management strategists wrote in their June report.

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Global stocks and commodities, outside of gold, are poised to crash amid continued woes for banks, according to RBS strategists. Central banks will have to keep easing, which means Treasuries and gold will rise, while equities and commodities plummet, they wrote in a...
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