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Gross Misconception: Bond Bulls Are Stampeding Back

Tuesday, 10 May 2011 09:00 AM

Ignoring bond god Bill Gross's opinion, investors worried about slowing growth are buying up Treasury debt.

To some, this is a preview of what is going to happen when the Federal Reserve ends its bond-buying program less than two months from now and might actually benefit or, at worst, be a non-event for bonds.

"If QE2 contributed to stocks and to risk assets and to the commodity bubble, well, what happens after QE2?" David Ader, head of government-bond strategy at CRT Capital, tells The Wall Street Journal.

"When QE2 ends, maybe those assets go the other way, and people buy more Treasurys."

Those betting on a post-QE2 rally in Treasurys have history on their side.

gross200-(1).jpg
Pimco's Bill Gross
(Pimco photo)
Yields, which move inversely to prices, rose steadily after the start of QE2 in November, because of an expected rise in economic growth, increased worries about inflation, and general nervousness about the impact of another government foray into the markets.

Gross, who is co-CIO of Pimco, recently observed that Treasury yields are currently yielding substantially less than historical averages when compared with inflation.

“Perhaps the only justification for a further rally would be weak economic growth or a future recession that substantially lowered inflation and inflationary expectations,” Gross told Reuters.

The $241 billion Total Return Fund managed by Gross had minus 3 percent of its assets in U.S. government-related debt in March after reducing the position to zero in February, Pimco said last month on its web site.

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Ignoring bond god Bill Gross's opinion, investors worried about slowing growth are buying up Treasury debt. To some, this is a preview of what is going to happen when the Federal Reserve ends its bond-buying program less than two months from now and might actually benefit...
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2011-00-10
Tuesday, 10 May 2011 09:00 AM
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