Tags: Nomura | Stocks | Drop | bear | market

Nomura’s Janjuah: Stocks May Drop 35 Percent by 2012

By    |   Wednesday, 05 Oct 2011 08:26 AM

The stock market has dipped into bear market territory, temporarily dropping more than 20 percent from its April highs, and many experts see more declines ahead. Bob Janjuah, a fixed income analyst for Nomura Securities is one of them.

While he thinks that the market will establish its 2011 low this month, it should resume its decline in earnest next year. And that could take the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index down to 700, which represents a plunge of 34 percent from current levels, Janjuah says, according to CNBC.

"The basic problems remain weak trend growth in the (developed market) world, which we think will continue for another three to five years; the policy errors of the current set of policymakers; and the existing set of inadequate 'old world' policy institutions," Janjuah writes in an analysis for clients obtained by CNBC.

So what should investors do in this environment? “Remain cautious and focus on strong balance sheets and strong business models," he says.

Michael Shaoul, chairman of Marketfield Asset Management, notes that all the market’s sectors aren’t falling in unison.

“The U.S. equity market has a massive divergence of performance,” he tells Bloomberg. Indeed, financial service companies, miners, and energy producers have fallen much further than companies in some other areas.

“That’s why even if the S&P 500 ends up down 22 or 23 or 25 percent, you’d want to be a little bit more nuanced,” Shaoul says.

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The stock market has dipped into bear market territory, temporarily dropping more than 20 percent from its April highs, and many experts see more declines ahead. Bob Janjuah, a fixed income analyst for Nomura Securities is one of them. While he thinks that the market will...
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Wednesday, 05 Oct 2011 08:26 AM
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