Tags: Moodys | Zandi | Worst | Economic | Slowdown | Over | growth

Moody's Zandi: Worst of Economic Slowdown is Over

By Dan Weil   |   Wednesday, 06 Jul 2011 08:07 AM

The U.S. economy grew only 1.9 percent in the first quarter, leading some experts to worry that a double-dip recession may be on the horizon. But Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, isn’t one of the worriers.

"We've seen the bulk of the slowdown…. I think we're going to reaccelerate," he tells Yahoo’s Ticker. "The consensus is overly pessimistic."

The majority of forecasters, including the Federal Reserve and International Monetary Fund, predict GDP won’t expand more than 3 percent in the second half of the year. But Zandi sees growth of close to 3 percent in the third quarter and almost 4 percent in the fourth quarter.

The growth slowdown in the first half of the year stemmed mostly from rising energy prices and the economic shock Japan received from its earthquake and tsunami in March, Zandi maintains.

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"Those weights are lifting," he says. "The Japanese economy seems to be gaining traction, (and that) augurs well for our manufacturing" sector.

That doesn’t mean Zandi sees a scorching rebound. Job growth will remain slight, with payrolls gaining only about 100,000 workers in the next month or two, he predicts.

Investment guru Barton Biggs, managing partner at Traxis Partners, says the government will have to implement huge fiscal stimulus to achieve the kind of growth Zandi projects.

"What the U.S. really needs is a massive infrastructure program… similar to the … 1930s," Biggs tells The Wall Street Journal.

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The U.S. economy grew only 1.9 percent in the first quarter, leading some experts to worry that a double-dip recession may be on the horizon. But Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, isn t one of the worriers. We've seen the bulk of the slowdown…. I...
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