Tags: Mobius | Emerging Markets | Fall | china

Mobius: Emerging Markets Could Fall 20 Percent

By Dan Weil   |   Wednesday, 30 Dec 2009 03:29 PM

Emerging stock markets have soared in recent years — so much so that many experts think the move is overdone.

This year alone, the MSCI Emerging Markets index has jumped 73 percent, compared to a 25 percent gain for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.

While U.S. stocks have suffered their worst decade in history, Ukraine’s market has surged more than 1,350 percent, The New York Times reports.

And many other emerging markets have soared too.

Emerging markets have benefited from strong economic growth that in some cases, such as China, continued even amid the global recession.

Many emerging market countries also have avoided large budget deficits, unlike their more developed brethren.

But these markets may have shot past fair value.

Emerging markets have a rollercoaster track record, with plunges in 1997-98 following an Asian currency crisis and Russia’s debt default.

Even perennial emerging market bull Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Franklin Templeton Investments, says a correction is in order.

“We continue to see upside, but with substantial corrections along the way, which could be as much as 20 percent,” he told The New York Times.

Not everyone is looking for a decline.

In a survey by The Association of Investment Companies, 35 percent of money managers chose emerging markets as the region that will perform best next year, making them the No. 1 choice, the London Telegraph reports.

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Emerging stock markets have soared in recent years so much so that many experts think the move is overdone. This year alone, the MSCI Emerging Markets index has jumped 73 percent, compared to a 25 percent gain for the Standard Poor s 500 Index. While U.S. stocks have...
Mobius,Emerging Markets,Fall,china
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2009-29-30
 

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