Tags: Jeffrey | Miron | China | Bubbles

Harvard Professor: China Hasn't Defused Bubbles

By Dan Weil   |   Wednesday, 27 Jan 2010 03:03 PM

China’s recent efforts to tighten monetary policy won’t eliminate the bubbles in its economy, says Harvard economist Jeffrey Miron.

The moves include an increase in bank reserve requirements.

But “I don’t think what they’ve done so far will be nearly enough,” Miron told Bloomberg.

“There’s still a huge amount of credit being provided, a huge amount of inducements for additional bank lending. There’s still a general mentality that they want to promote homeownership.”

On the monetary front, “The increase in interest rates so far have been very minuscule. So I think there’s a definitely bubble, and it’s going to continue for a while unless the Chinese take stronger measures,” Miron said.

It’s difficult to say when any bubble will burst, he points out.

In China, “It may be within a few weeks but more likely it’s in the next year or two.”

China may be able to deflate the bubble slowly, but fundamental economic factors dictate that home prices and stocks will come back to earth, Miron says.

“It’s very hard to manage it skillfully and gradually. Very few economies have done that.”

New York University economist Nouriel Roubini also thinks China most do more to quell its bubbles.

"It will be nice to see an increase in the interest rate . . . in China because credit growth has been excessive," he told reporters after a speech.

"Doing it sooner rather than later probably is the right policy."

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China s recent efforts to tighten monetary policy won t eliminate the bubbles in its economy, says Harvard economist Jeffrey Miron. The moves include an increase in bank reserve requirements. But I don t think what they ve done so far will be nearly enough, Miron told...
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