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US Global Investors' Holmes: Gold Headed Higher for the Long Run

By Dan Weil   |   Tuesday, 15 May 2012 08:08 AM

Commodities have been in a slump for the past year, but the multi-year super-cycle of rising commodity prices hasn’t ended, says Frank Holmes, CEO of U.S. Global Investors.

Easy monetary policy around the world will push commodities like gold upward for the long term, he tells Yahoo.

"When push comes to shove, they're going to print money,” Holmes says, referring specifically to the European Central Bank, but applying the point to central banks around the world.

Editor's Note: How You Lost $85,000 During the Last Decade. See the Numbers.

“They’re not going to have any fiscal discipline, and they’ll slowly devalue the currency.” Holmes notes that even central banks in emerging markets are now reversing last year’s tightening moves.

History shows that gold generally doesn’t fall until short-term interest rates rise to a level more than 2 percentage points above the inflation rate, he says.

With U.S. consumer prices up 2.7 percent over the past year, that would require a federal funds rate of about 5 percent or more. The fed funds rate is now zero to 0.25 percent.

Until that 2-point gap is reached, “gold will slowly become a more significant asset class in the world,” Holmes says.

He says the precious metal may well fall further before recovering. Others see more weakness too.

"I wouldn't be surprised if we test the December low of around $1,520 an ounce, and if we don't stop there, we could go below $1,500," Daniel Briesemann of Commerzbank tells Reuters.

Gold recently traded at $1,554.

Editor's Note: How You Lost $85,000 During the Last Decade. See the Numbers.





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