Tags: Gordon | US | safe haven | curse

Eurasia Group’s Gordon: US Has Succumbed to ‘Safe-Haven’ Curse

By    |   Tuesday, 18 Sep 2012 09:07 AM

Many Americans might think of the country’s safe-haven investment status as a blessing, but David Gordon, director of research at political-risk consulting firm Eurasia Group, sees it as a curse.

Gordon tells Yahoo that Congress and the White House will not fall off the fiscal cliff, but rather will probably back away from the cliff with only mild spending cuts.

They will continue to kick the can down the road.

Editor's Note: Economist Warns: ‘Money From Heaven a Path to Hell.’ See Evidence.

“We’re able to do this because the United States remains a safe haven in the face of economic turmoil in Europe, uncertainty in China,” Gordon says.

“Despite deep concern in markets about long-term fiscal issues, money keeps pouring in, interest rates don’t rise.”

Treasurys have enjoyed a huge rally since the financial crisis broke out four years ago. The 10-year yield recently stood at 1.82 percent, down from 3.64 percent then.

“As long as that’s the case, we’ll be living under the ‘safe-haven curse,’" Gordon says.

“It helps us in the short run, but in the long run it's a curse because it makes it harder for the politicians to get their act together and do what has to be done at some point.”

Many analysts see several reasons why Treasurys should remain a safe haven.

“There’s plenty of uncertainty overseas, there’s plenty of uncertainty about whether this QE [quantitative easing] process will be able to do anything for the real economy anyway,” Ian Lyngen, a government-bond strategist at CRT Capital Group, tells Bloomberg.

Editor's Note: Economist Warns: ‘Money From Heaven a Path to Hell.’ See Evidence.

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Many Americans might think of the country’s safe-haven investment status as a blessing, but David Gordon, director of research at political-risk consulting firm Eurasia Group, sees it as a curse.
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Tuesday, 18 Sep 2012 09:07 AM
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