Emerging stock markets are poised for a 20 percent drop, thanks to an oversupply of initial public offerings, says emerging market guru Mark Mobius of Templeton Asset Management.
IPOs in emerging markets totaled $77 billion last year, topping industrialized nations by 160 percent, according to Bloomberg.
That’s the first time emerging markets beat their developed brethren in the 10 years that Bloomberg has tracked the data.
“When you look at the size of some of these IPOs, they’re pretty massive,” Mobius told Bloomberg.
“At the right price, the IPOs will be absorbed, but you’re going to have some hiccups. It’s too much supply coming out.”
In another sign that emerging markets are overvalued, the price-earnings ratio for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has surged to its highest level in 10 years (24.2), after the index jumped 75 percent last year, according to Bloomberg data.
To be sure, many experts remain bullish on emerging markets. Jeffrey Palma, head of global equity strategy for UBS, says emerging markets represent the top choice for stocks this year, because earnings of companies there will rise faster than in developed markets.
“Emerging markets are really the only place to be,” he told Bloomberg.
Bond find titan PIMCO also likes emerging markets.
“Our overall currency target is to be about 3 percent long a basket of emerging market currencies,” PIMCO managing director Paul McCulley wrote on the firm’s web site.
He recommends emerging market bonds too.
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