Tags: Economic | Think | Tank | Recession

Top Economic Think Tank: Prepare for Recession

By    |   Tuesday, 11 Oct 2011 07:59 AM

The U.S. economy is in a recession now or soon will be. So says the Economic Cycle Research Institute of New York City.

And the think tank’s pronouncements are worth listening too, as it has a perfect record in its recession predictions over the past 15 years, The New York Times reports.

Almost all economists downgraded their growth forecasts after Standard & Poor’s lowered the U.S. government’s debt rating in early August, but a majority maintains that we can avoid another recession.
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As for the institute, “If the United States isn’t already in a recession now it’s about to enter one,” Lakshman Achuthan, its chief operations officer, tells The Times. He expects GDP growth to turn negative by next year’s first quarter if not before.

And he warns that we should prepare for unemployment to rise above its September rate of 9.1 percent. “I wouldn’t be surprised if it goes back up into double digits,” Achuthan says.

recessionap200.jpg
A New York City eatery offers 'Recession Specials'
(Associated Press photo)
The institute looks at a range of leading and coincident indicators that all point to recession, he says.

Meanwhile, recent stronger-than-expected data, including September’s employment report, has some economists lifting their growth projections, Bloomberg reports.

For example, Goldman Sachs Group and Macroeconomic Advisers just boosted their growth estimates for the third quarter growth to 2.5 percent from about 2 percent.

“The U.S. economy doesn’t look like it’s double-dipping at all, but it is a crummy recovery,” Allen Sinai, president of Decision Economics, tells Bloomberg.

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The U.S. economy is in a recession now or soon will be. So says the Economic Cycle Research Institute of New York City. And the think tank s pronouncements are worth listening too, as it has a perfect record in its recession predictions over the past 15 years, The New York...
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