Credit Suisse metals analyst Michael Shillaker says a Chinese economic acceleration beginning in late 2010 and continuing through 2011 will drive copper prices up almost one-third higher.
“We still think that copper will reach $10,000 a ton by 2012 and relatively simple supply-demand analysis supports this,” Shillaker told Metal Miner.
“We believe there is 30 percent upside potential to current share prices for the miners into year-end and in some cases potentially more than 100 percent upside over the next two to three years,” Shillaker is quoted by The Business Insider as saying.
Not only will China increase demand through 2011 and into 2012, but demand “normalization” in the rest of the world will add fuel to the fire, says Shillaker.
Shillaker believes that copper will be the next catalyst for the out performance of mining shares, similar to those witnessed in 2001, 2005, 2007 and 2009.
Copper tumbled to its lowest in nearly a month on Tuesday as weak housing market data from the world's largest economy, the United States, reinforced worries about growth and demand, Reuters reported.
Following copper's lead, aluminium hit its lowest in more than a month; zinc, lead and nickel all hit their lowest since late July; and, tin hit its lowest in nearly two weeks. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange ended at $7,137 from a close of $7,255 on Monday. Earlier, the metal used in power and construction touched $7,105 a tonne, its lowest since July 28.
The latest trigger was news that sales of previously owned U.S. homes dropped more steeply than expected in July to their lowest pace in 15 years, implying further loss of momentum in the economic recovery.
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