Tags: blinder | jobs | economy | hiring | recovery

Blinder: U.S. to Roar Back With Lots of Jobs

Tuesday, 22 Dec 2009 07:53 AM

The U.S. economy is finally crawling out of a deep hole, and is surprisingly on the threshold of massive job creation, writes economist, and former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, Alan S. Blinder.

“You have probably heard a lot of doom and gloom lately, including talk of a jobless recovery, an L-shaped recovery, which means no recovery at all, or even a W—the feared double-dip recession,” writes Blinder in The Wall Street Journal.

“The Scrooges have a point: There are serious dangers to the nascent recovery. But you've heard all that many times. Let me offer instead, in deliberately one-sided fashion, the case for optimism. It is, after all, the holiday season.”

The key to this positive analysis is the growth in the third quarter, writes Blinder.

“Like a woozy prizefighter lifting himself off the canvas, the battered investment component of GDP managed to rise at an 11 percent annual rate, which added 1.3 points to GDP growth rather than subtracting 5.4 points,” he explains of the third quarter trend.

“That 6.7 point swing was the start of the slingshot effect, which is not yet over.”

Combined with growing consumer spending, this could power a return of job growth for the economy, Blinder says.

“While payrolls continued to decline in November, it was by only a scant 11,000 jobs; and the job counts for September and October were revised upward. The data now show a clear trend that suggests that net job creation may be only a month or two away,” says Blinder.

But not everyone, of course, agrees with this optimistic view.

The Minneapolis Star-Tribune reports that the U.S. economy is still growing too slowly and lacks the job growth needed to fuel a “vigorous” recovery.

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The U.S. economy is finally crawling out of a deep hole, and is surprisingly on the threshold of massive job creation, writes economist, and former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, Alan S. Blinder. You have probably heard a lot of doom and gloom lately, including...
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2009-53-22
Tuesday, 22 Dec 2009 07:53 AM
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