The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index already has soared 93 percent from its March 2009 lows, and it’s headed more than 60 percent higher from current levels during the next two to three years, says investment guru Laszlo Birinyi, head of Birinyi Associates.
"The last bull market was five years. We're still looking for (this) bull market to last four to five years," Birinyi told CNBC.
"If we cobble together all the long bull markets, we come up with a historical projection of about 2,100 out two or three years from now on the S&P." The index stood at 1,288 in early trading Wednesday and hit a nadir of 667 in March 2009.
Birinyi bases his call on previous market patterns. "There have always been arguments — it's too quick, there's not enough breadth, there's not enough volume, we're due for a correction," he says. "The problem with so much of this is it's opinion and commentary."
Some experts have attributed stock gains merely to the Federal Reserve’s easing. Birinyi says the Fed has played a role, but "the Fed's not buying Netflix," he pointed out, referring to the company’s stock surge.
Others are bullish too.
“We ought to be overweight equities,” Hayes Miller, head of asset allocation at Baring Asset Management, tells Bloomberg. “I don’t think that anything that’s happening in Japan or Libya changes the attractiveness of stocks.”
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Chief Executive Officer Warren Buffett said the U.S. economy is “getting better month by month,” aided by government stimulus and the strength of capitalism.
“The most important factor is the really underlying resilience of capitalism,” Buffett during a recent visit to India. There are more than 300 million Americans “thinking about how to do something better tomorrow than they’ve done today.”
However, Bank of America Corp. has warned that the S&P 500 Index may decline as much as 9.9 percent from its current level before rising again later.
The S&P 500’s fall below support at 1,270 last week broke the “uptrend” that has been in place since the middle of last year, Mary Ann Bartels, Bank of America’s New York-based head of technical market analysis, said.
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