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Gross: Double-Dip Recession Possible

By Dan Weil   |   Thursday, 03 Sep 2009 05:21 PM

Pimco Chief Investment Officer Bill Gross sees a good chance of a double-digit recession as the government pulls back from its massive fiscal stimulus.

As a result, he recommends that investors buy medium- and long-term Treasuries.

"To the extent that we have had $1 trillion worth of stimulus, from the standpoint of deficits, and more, the government basically has to continue to do that and to add to that in order to keep the economy chugging along," he told CNBC.

"To the extent that that's limited, to the extent that they pull back on some of those stimulus programs — Cash for Clunkers and those types of things — then the double-dip moves into the realm of possibility."

And what does that mean for Treasuries?

"As long as the Fed and other central banks keep policy rates low and as long as inflation doesn't rear its head, intermediate and longer bonds do well," Gross said.

“In this new normal world of slow growth and low inflation, there are attractive aspects of, yes, long-term U.S. Treasury bonds. To the extent we might have … a double dip in the economy in 2010, then the long bond at 4.13, 4.14, 4.15 (percent) begins to have some attractiveness.”

Gross isn’t the only one to warn of a possible double-dip recession.

Economic guru Nouriel Roubini wrote in the Financial Times last month that “there is a rising risk of a double-dip W-shaped recession.”

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Pimco Chief Investment Officer Bill Gross sees a good chance of a double-digit recession as the government pulls back from its massive fiscal stimulus.As a result, he recommends that investors buy medium- and long-term Treasuries."To the extent that we have had $1 trillion...
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2009-21-03
 

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