Traxis Partners managing partner Barton Biggs says we're not in a bull market yet — this bear-market rally still has a ways to go.
"We could be in a little pause here while the market corrects an overbought period," Biggs told CNBC.
"Basically, we're maybe half-way through or a third of the way through a really significant rally, not at the beginning of a great, new secular bull market."
Biggs believes the markets could experience a 1938-type recovery this year, in part because hedge funds have positioned themselves conservatively.
“We’re running a very substantial net-long,” he says. “The psychology is still very bearish. As a group (hedge fund managers) don’t believe that the economy is improving.”
Though the global purchasing managers’ index (PMI) continues to indicate contraction in the world economy, Biggs notes that the rate of contraction is slowing.
"When you look at the components of the PMI, it's very encouraging that new orders have picked up, that delivery times have continued to increase and the inventory component of the PMI continues to decline in a very substantial way," he notes.
“It seems to me that that combination of demand stabilizing plus very low inventories is continuing to generate some improving PMI numbers.”
Don’t bet on even a continued really, say some.
“This move is too explosive to be sustainable,” Harris Private Bank CIO Jack Albin told Bloomberg.
“None of the structural underpinnings of the market have really changed. It’s going to be a multi-year healing process.”
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