Tags: Volker Wieland | Greece | Angela Merkel | Wolfgang Schaeubel

Analysts Debate Greece's Future; Should Germany Exit Eurozone?

By    |   Monday, 20 Jul 2015 10:44 AM

Volker Wieland, a of the German Council of Economic Experts, analyzed a policy disagreement between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeubel, something that could never occur in the U.S. He focused on proposed reforms, including reduction in monopolies in the Greek economy, and expressed doubt that it could be achieved. He questioned the practicality of a proposal by French President Hollande to give more power to the European government, which would entail Hollande himself giving up some power and could lead to the UK leaving the EU, which Wieland said would be “terrible” for Europe.

Anton Hesse, of Morgan Stanley, joins the crowd predicting that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December, and he goes on to forecast that the largest selloff in German bunds in the last 25 years will continue as inflation kicks in, a development he called crucial for the ECB to end its version of QE. Wieland also mentioned the possibility that the situation in Greece entails some contagion risk, even though it hasn’t manifested itself so far. He also observed that this issue of German QE has led the German bund market to dominate the U.S. Treasury market rather than the other way around.

It is often helpful to get insight into what the IMF is thinking, whether one agrees or not, and Ashoka Mody, former Deputy Director of the IMF, thinks it is Germany, the leader of the EU and the Eurozone, that should withdraw from the euro, because this would “loosen the ties and improve the economics of the Eurozone.” He told the interviewer that the need for Germany to remain, in order to secure peace on the continent, no longer exists, so by Germany leaving, “you get something without really losing anything.” To a layman, this sounds highly improbable.

Finally, without the spark of a contrary view by Peter Schiff, Options Action panelist Scott Nations becomes animated with his colleagues over whether the recent collapse in the VIX by over 30% is bullish for stocks over the next six months. This is said to reflect relief due to the potential resolution of the situation in Greece, but this writer would add that traders know that this bull market is backed by the U.S. Treasury and Fed and is certain to remain so through the coming election, for one of the many unstated mandates of the Fed is to maintain a favorable economic background for the success of the party in power. The Fed doesn’t always play this role – 1992 is a classic example – but since then the Fed has ramped up its intervention markets beyond all previous experience and senators told Yellen last week that they want this to continue.


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Robert-Feinberg
Volker Wieland, a of the German Council of Economic Experts, analyzed a policy disagreement between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeubel, something that could never occur in the U.S.
Volker Wieland, Greece, Angela Merkel, Wolfgang Schaeubel
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2015-44-20
Monday, 20 Jul 2015 10:44 AM
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