Pouring through the Commitment of Traders reports for various commodities and futures contracts over the weekend, I couldn’t help but notice a strange event for the Nasdaq 100 futures.
After being holding a net long position for nearly nine months, two weeks ago the large speculators moved to a net bearish position.
The good news is that the last time this group of investors had moved to a net bearish position was last summer, right when the market was getting ready to go on the huge four-month rally that closed out 2010.
If you look at 2010 as a whole, through the first six months of the year the market had done nothing but tread water. It was during the final four months of the year that the gains were made.
Looking at the chart and the sentiment indicators from last year and this year, I can see a similar pattern developing where the gains for the indices are had in the second half of the year.
The Commitment of Traders for the Nasdaq 100 is just another indicator repeating the same pattern from last summer.
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