I know I talk about the Commitment of Traders (COT) quite a bit when it comes to the sentiment towards various markets. And why wouldn’t I? These are the big boys of the investment world. These are the major traders and major institutions.
We usually look at commodities when we are discussing the large speculators and their net position, but I took note of a recent development of the COT of S&P futures.
After being net long almost 60,000 contracts back in early December, large speculators have shifted their position dramatically over the last six weeks.
During the last few weeks, large speculators have actually moved to a net short position. This shift in sentiment is coming at a time when the 10-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) moved above 80 for the first time since January 2004.
The RSI is an overbought/oversold indicator and readings above 70 are considered overbought. Readings above 80 are rare with only five instances in the last 15 years.
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