Tags: Options | VIX | Investors | Intelligence

Options Traders Are Very Optimistic, Be Careful

By Rick Pendergraft   |   Tuesday, 09 Oct 2012 07:44 AM

Two weeks ago, I warned that the Investors Intelligence report and the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) were reaching overly optimistic levels.

The VIX was hovering below the 15 level and the ratio of bulls to bears on the Investors Intelligence report was sitting at 2.2:1.

The VIX is still waffling back and forth above and below the 15 level, but the Investors Intelligence report has become significantly less bullish, as the ratio is now down to 1.84:1.

Urgent:
CIA Adviser Warns of ‘A Financial Pearl Harbor’ (Be Prepared)

Unfortunately, the optimism that left the Investors Intelligence report seems to have made its way into the options arena.

The 21-day moving average on the CBOE Equity Put/Call ratio dropped to 0.623 last Thursday, the lowest reading since April 16.

I noticed that before the correction in the spring, the optimism in the Investors Intelligence report peaked a few weeks ahead of the optimism in the CBOE numbers.

It also caught my attention that the downswing in the spring coincided with the second-quarter earnings season. Alcoa kicks off the third-quarter earnings season after the close tonight.

With the similarities between the sentiment indicators and the technical indicators, along with the start of earnings season, I think investors would be wise to exercise caution for the next month or so.

Urgent:
CIA Adviser Warns of ‘A Financial Pearl Harbor’ (Be Prepared)

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The optimism that left the Investors Intelligence report seems to have made its way into the options arena.
Options,VIX,Investors,Intelligence
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2012-44-09
 

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