With the ongoing turmoil in the Middle East, oil prices have continued to climb and are now at their highest level in two and half years.
The last time oil was more than $100 a barrel was in the summer of 2008 and then it was on its way down from the $145 peak.
Back in the 2007-2008 timeframe, the biggest net long position large speculators established was around 130,000 contracts. As of last Friday, large speculators reached a net long position of 272,000 contracts – twice as high as the position established back in the last run up in oil.
Perhaps even more telling is that of the total number of futures contracts open by large speculators, 76 percent of those are on the long side (bullish).
The value of sentiment analysis is knowing when the bullish sentiment has reached a level where there are few buyers left.
When the market runs out of buyers, you are only left with sellers.
With 76 percent of the open interest dedicated to bullish positions, oil may be coming to a peak in the near future.
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