Tags: Bullish | Sentiment | Spike | Predict | More | Selling

Bullish Sentiment Spike May Predict More Selling

By Rick Pendergraft   |   Tuesday, 23 Nov 2010 09:40 AM

The selling pressure that hit the market two weeks ago may not be over just yet.

I had been looking for some selling pressure to take the indices out of overbought territory and to shift the sentiment out of an overly optimistic state.

However, the initial selling has caused one sentiment indicator to show an increase in optimism.

The Investors Intelligence report from Nov. 17 shows that the percentage of newsletter writers that are bullish has moved above the 55 percent level for only the second time this year. Care to guess when the other time was? That’s right, it was in late April.

During the last two years, the key level for the Investors Intelligence report has been 50 percent. When the bullish percentage reaches 50 percent or higher, the market has slowed down and in most cases experienced a pullback.

If this bearish signal is any indication, we could see selling for several months. The last signal came as the S&P hit its high in April and proceeded to drop almost 16 percent to the low in July.

If you think one signal isn’t enough to go on, the only other time the bullish percentage exceeded 55 percent in the last three years was in December 2007, right before the market went into the free fall that was 2008.


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The selling pressure that hit the market two weeks ago may not be over just yet. I had been looking for some selling pressure to take the indices out of overbought territory and to shift the sentiment out of an overly optimistic state. However, the initial selling has...
Bullish,Sentiment,Spike,Predict,More,Selling
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2010-40-23
 

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