Tags: Loomis | Eagan | Misery | Bond

Loomis Sayles' Eagan: Steady Drip of Misery for Bond Investors

Saturday, 16 Mar 2013 04:47 PM

By Michelle Smith

Concern over rising rates is not just squawk by the media or the irrational fear of unwitting retail investors. Professional money managers are also not taking the prospects lightly as they watch rates on the move.

Bonds have been an alluring proposition for decades. But rising rates is no longer just the risk at bay. Interest rates have already started an upward move and many professionals expect the rise to continue.

CBNC reported that yields on government bonds were moving up at the beginning of the year.

Yields on 10 year Treasuries rose by more than 15 basis points since the start of January, CNBC reported on January 8th. Then, the yield was 1.87 percent.

Editor's Note: Prophetic Economist Warns: “It’s Curtains for America.” See Evidence.

Money is shifting from bonds to stocks, Mike Crofton, president and CEO of Philadelphia Trust Company, pointed out at the time.

“We may see a fairly significant move in the 10-year yield and I think it could go up to as high as 3 percent in the next 12-18 months,” he told CNBC.

Wednesday the yield on the 10 year had climbed closer to Crofton's forecast. At 2.02 percent, it was far from the July low of 1.38 percent, as Market Watch pointed out.

“The main reason for rising yields is that Treasury's role as a safe haven asset is declining and the economy is moving inexorably towards the first rate hike,” CNBC says David Keeble, global head of interest rate strategy at Agricole wrote.

Matthew Eagan, co-manager of Loomis Sayles multi-billion dollar bond fund, told Market Watch that investors have been losing on Treasuries since July.

And government debt is not the sole concern. Corporations have also been on a spree issuing debt for attractive low prices. Investors responded with an apparent fondness for high yield bonds.

But as early as last year, Dan Fuss, a co-manager of the Loomis Sayles bond fund, reportedly called high yield absolutely ridiculous, from a valuation point.

“High yield is as overbought as I've ever seen it,” Market Watch quoted Fuss as saying.

Forecasts for a bond bubble are not new. And though the eruption has not yet occurred, many money managers are still bracing for change.

“We see us entering a period where rates are going to rise on a secular basis” Eagan told Market Watch writer Howard Gold.

But perhaps a massive implosion of the market is not what we should be looking for.

Eagan sees a steady drip, drip, drip of misery ahead for bond investors, writes Gold.

“Nobody knows for sure, but my guess is it will be many, many years of rising rates,”  Eagan told Gold.

Editor's Note: Prophetic Economist Warns: “It’s Curtains for America.” See Evidence.

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