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Hulbert: Gold Headed Higher, but Probably not for a Few Weeks

By    |   Monday, 07 May 2012 06:57 AM

Investment guru Mark Hulbert sees gold rising in about a month.

He bases his forecast on what he calls the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index (HGNSI), which measures the average gold exposure recommended by a group of short-term gold market timers.

That index turned bullish two months ago, when it stood at 16.7 percent, Hulbert writes on MarketWatch.com. That means the newsletters recommended on average that readers have 16.7 percent of the money they allocate to gold invested in the precious metal.

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Now the index had dropped to minus 14.8 percent, almost a three-year low. That means the newsletters recommend investors devote 14.8 percent of their gold allocation to shorting the metal.

Hulbert’s thinking, of course, is that when traders are most bearish, the market usually climbs.

“Gold traders’ increasing impatience has led even more of them to throw in the towel than before — which, in turn, is why contrarians are confident that gold’s next major move is most likely up,” he writes.

Hulbert’s research of the past 30 years indicates gold rises three months after his index turns bullish. That means the metal’s ascent should begin in about a month.

Others see strength in gold too.

“People are investing in gold because they are worried about the economy, and also should any kind of monetary of fiscal stimulus be announced, gold will be a good hedge,” Pratik Sharma of Atyant Capital Management tells Bloomberg.

Editor's Note: Get David Skarica's Gold Stock Adviser — Click Here Now!

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