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Gold Too High for Jewelers, Maybe Too High for Investors

By Gene J. Koprowski   |   Monday, 11 May 2009 05:17 PM

Gold prices appear to be too high for jewelers, according to an analysis by one of the globe's leading exchange traded fund (ETF) managers.

That leaves just investor demand, which is about a third of total demand.

Gold prices need to fall to between $800 to $850 an ounce to create interest among jewelers, Nicholas Brooks, head of investment strategy for ETF Securities, which manages $6.7 billion in gold held in exchange-traded funds, told Marketwatch.com.

The price of stood was at about $915 an ounce on Monday.

ETF issues securities backed by physical stocks of commodities, which along with similar funds have been generating demand for precious metals for several months.

If enough investors get nervous about holding gold as stocks rise, though, it could cause a downdraft in price.

Nearly 60 percent of total global demand for gold last year came from jewelers, and just 30 percent from investors, with the rest from coming from industrial users, Brooks said

Gold climbed to $900 an ounce late last month as worried investors melted down over currency and stock markets.

The commodity last traded below $850 an ounce on Jan. 22, according to data from Reuters.

Gold has been historically seen as a safe-haven purchase to fight off weakness in other investment outlets.

Some believe that President Obama's deficit spending, along with the Fed’s massive easing program, will trigger inflation later this year.

That kind of thinking could weigh on investor purchases soon, but inflation would first have to become apparent.

Brooks indicated that gold buying as an inflation hedge was going to be subdued as long as the anticipation of U.S. inflation stayed in the 1 percent and 1.5 percent range.

"There's a relatively low correlation at those levels, though gold stands out as a pretty good performer," said Brooks.

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Gold prices appear to be too high for jewelers, according to an analysis by one of the globe's leading exchange traded fund (ETF) managers. That leaves just investor demand, which is about a third of total demand.Gold prices need to fall to between $800 to $850 an ounce to...
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2009-17-11
 

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