Tags: gold | must | have | metal

CEF Holdings CEO: ‘Gold is a Must-Have’ in Today's Economy

By    |   Monday, 02 Jul 2012 07:15 AM

Gold isn't just a commodity like all the others, according to Warren Gilman, chief executive officer of CEF Holdings.

“Obviously it’s not an industrial productivity-driven commodity,” he told CNBC. “It’s more of a currency and it’s more of a play on inflation rather than something that is driven by actual consumption.”

However, he noted, gold is vulnerable right now to a downside trade, just like all other commodities.

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“Gold for the past few years has been a source of great profits,” Gilman said. “If one can take a profit in these uncertain times, lock in some cash, then one is going to do that. It’s also a source of some liquidity.”

Gilman believes the bias on the gold price is on the downside in the near term, noting that gold is having “a bit of a paranoia experience right now.”

“It can’t quite figure out if it’s a risk on trade or a risk off-trade,” he said, adding that traders are missing the point on gold.

“Gold is a must have in the current environment,” Gilman stated.

In the long term, gold will come to the fore in terms of a risk on-trade and a risk off-trade.

“But ultimately in this environment, when you have negative real interest rates and you have central banks acquiring gold at historic levels over the last few years, the gold price will eventually rise,” he said.

Gilman noted that he is not taking a short position in gold, but believes the short-term trade is bias toward the downside.

If looking to get into commodities, Gilman explained, resource equities have been terrible performers the past year. Sentiment is “tremendously” negative.

“If we see some actual light at the end of the tunnel with respect to Europe and if we get some indication that we’re going to get easing out of China, then we are going to see a tremendous short-term pop in the resource equities, particularly copper and gold,” he said.

In the long run, Gilman would rather hold gold physical than the equities.

“But the short-term trade, once we see some light at the end of the tunnel, is going to be in the equities,” he said.

Along those same lines, Dennis Gartman, author of The Gartman Letter and well known for his expertise in commodities, said recently that there’s been a shift in the gold trade.

“For the first time in a long time, I’d rather own the miners than bullion, or gold contracts or the GLD,” Gartman told CNBC.

“Over the past few weeks, as the gold market advanced, the gold equities — that is, large-cap gold miners — performed better than bullion,” Gartman explained.

The New York spot gold price was $1,599.10 per ounce Friday afternoon.

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2012-15-02
Monday, 02 Jul 2012 07:15 AM
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