Tags: economy

Today We Will Know: Bear or Bull

By Hans Parisis
Tuesday, 10 Nov 2009 08:26 AM Current | Bio | Archive

After French presidential advisor Henri Guaino’s stated recently that “EUR/USD at $1.50 is a disaster for the European economy and industry,” lobby group Business Europe commented that the euro is at the pain threshold for the industry and expressed its deep concern about the currency’s recent gains.

So, in case EUR/USD gains a foot hold above $1.50, then it will be interesting to see just how the euro zone’s finance ministries will react.

In the mean time, yesterday we saw a new Dollar Index year-to-date low at 74.83, which was just one tick beneath its previous low of 74.94. It was again the lynchpin that helped the upward move in equities, as well as all other asset classes.

Nevertheless, yesterday’s dollar index new year-to-date low was not confirmed by dollar/Swiss, which, until now, remained below its Oct. 2 high of 99.64.

For the rest, today could be an important one for the markets as a whole. If the markets remain internally strong through today’s session, then we should see a new rally phase developing.

But, if today shows little or no follow-through on yesterday’s rally, then yesterday will be no more than a one-day short-covering squeeze that ran the bears out of the market just before for the next leg down.

Breadth and volume are the first ports of call after a big move. Before going any further, I must emphasize that breadth and volume are indicators. In my opinion, breadth is an important indicator, more important than volume.

Yesterday definitely qualifies as a big move. All major indices were up 2 percent or more. All sectors were up with five of nine advancing over 2 percent. The laggards (up less than 2 percent) were healthcare, energy, consumer staples, and utilities, which are the defensive sectors.

Despite the big up-day all around, Nasdaq and NYSE volume levels were well below average. NYSE volume was below average the last three days. The NY Composite is up 4.46 percent in three days, but volume was not even average. Actually, the advances in early September and early October featured low volume as well.

This is a potential warning sign, but it is not sufficient to turn bearish right now. As I said yesterday, I’d remain on the watch.

We’ll see what comes out today, it could be important.

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After French presidential advisor Henri Guaino’s stated recently that “EUR/USD at $1.50 is a disaster for the European economy and industry,” lobby group Business Europe commented that the euro is at the pain threshold for the industry and expressed its deep concern about...
economy
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2009-26-10
 

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