Tags: ecb | dollar | europe | easing

ECB's Easing Tactics Are Too Much, Too Late — and That's Too Bad

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Wednesday, 11 Mar 2015 07:38 AM Current | Bio | Archive

 
It really looks like the ECB’s “quantitative easing (QE) medicine” works on the euro front only too well!

ECB President Mario Draghi called the QE tactic "unconventional, but not unorthodox” that intends for a weaker euro, which also should imply higher inflation and better growth in the eurozone.

Already on the second day of the ECB’s fully applied quantitative-easing program, the single currency tumbled under $1.07 per euro, which was its lowest level since April 8, 2003.
 
Deutsche Bank said it expects the euro to hit $0.85 per euro in 2017 that is a level of only $0.03 above the all-time low of $0.82 per euro we saw in October 2000.
 
Long-term investors should note that if Deutsche Bank's forecast turns out to be right (I think there is a great possibility it will be), this level of the euro should be nearly at half of the record-high value it had in 2008 when one had to pay $1.6038 per euro.
 
Equally important for long-term investors is that the forecasters at Deutsche Bank also expect we could see the largest capital flight out of the euro area in economic history because a true and unprecedented “euro-glut” that will be created by Mr. Draghi’s (what he himself called unconventional, but not unorthodox) asset purchases (QE).
 
I think this all will lead to another huge bubble that will unavoidably pop within a couple of years, but the size will dwarf the last one we experienced in 2006-2007.
 
Of course I don’t have a crystal ball, but that’s what I think could happen.
 
We aren’t there yet — not by a long shot — and for now a legitimate question investors could ask themselves how high could the dollar or how low could the euro go?
 
Of course nothing is written in stone and declining and upward slopes never occur in straight lines.
 
Nevertheless it could be helpful to take notice of the fact we have today widespread negative or extremely low yields on eurozone sovereigns and the difference or gap in yield on the German 10-year “bund” and the U.S. 10-year Treasury is close to two percent (190 basis points this morning), which is a gap we haven’t seen since the 1980s when the euro-equivalent of the then German mark was priced around $0.70 per euro.

To me, that’s a good indication how high the dollar or how low the euro could go over the medium term.
 
Maybe it’s only anecdotal, but Anton Börner, president of the Federation of German Wholesale, Foreign Trade and Services (BGA), said in relation the ECB’s launch of its full quantitative-easing (QE) program and the simultaneously further slide of the euro: “Only at first glance is a weak euro pleasing for an export nation like Germany. But Germany is also one of the largest importers in the world … The ECB has opened a door behind which lurks the danger of a currency war. This step also destroys the necessary global confidence in a stable currency (euro) and endangers the stability in Europe … Tragically, it is that the ECB’s policy will even not help the countries that are in crisis. This because monetary policy cannot replace the necessary structural reforms.”
 
Mr. Börner is supposed to know extremely well what he is talking about as Germany ranked in 2013 third in the world after China (first) and the USA (second) on the list of countries by exports and also third on the list of countries by imports, but then after the USA (1st) and China (2nd), based on data of the World Factbook of the CIA.
 
As I’ve said before, I have my serious doubts the ECB’s full quantitative easing program — that came too late and is too big — will end well.

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HansParisis
We aren’t there yet — not by a long shot — and for now a legitimate question investors could ask themselves how high could the dollar or how low could the euro go?
ecb, dollar, europe, easing
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2015-38-11
Wednesday, 11 Mar 2015 07:38 AM
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