Tags: dollar | united states | investing | economy

If You're Invested in the US and King Dollar, Stay Where You Are

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Friday, 19 Dec 2014 06:54 AM Current | Bio | Archive

When we look at the strong upward performances of various U.S. equity markets over the last two days, there is very little doubt the vast majority of market players considered Wednesday’s FOMC’s statement as well as Fed Chair Yellen’s comments at the press conference as “dovish” after the FOMC communicated its decision not the change its monetary “policy” for the time being while remaining patient and wait to begin the normalization process, for at least the next couple (two?) of meetings.

Now, when Fed Chair Yellen answered the first question of a journalist during the Q&A session and stated: “… as I mentioned, most participants do envision that conditions will be appropriate sometime during this coming year to begin normalizing policy. And they do largely expect that inflation will be — core inflation will probably be running close to its current level. And headline inflation could even be lower. But what they will want to have is a feeling of reasonable confidence that when we start the process of normalizing policy, that it will be moving up over time. And of course, as labor market conditions continue to improve, history suggests that as long as inflation expectations remain well-anchored, that that's likely to occur...”

In my opinion that’s not a dovish statement, on the contrary, when I read Mrs. Yellen’s answer, to me that’s probably one of her first warnings the Fed is ready to take a more aggressive stance notwithstanding low inflation at present than many market participants believe today.

In fact, I see her statement as a clear warning that a rate hike will occur even with core inflation growth at current low levels as long as projections still see their 2 percent inflation target being met in the future.

In my opinion, it becomes clearer by the day at the Fed they really want to avoid falling into the “zero” interest rate “trap” while there is no real deflation threat.

I expect core PCE growing at even short of 2 percent into to the end of 2015, which again, when we read Yellen’s answer thoroughly, this should in itself not be or remain an obstacle to an initial rate hike during the second half of 2015, probably somewhere in the third quarter.

And then, please keep in mind a Fed in motion, usually stays a Fed in motion. Anyway, we’ll have to wait and see if history will repeat itself or this time will be different.

That said, it really could become interesting to see how other important economies and not at least how their currencies will react once the Fed starts moving while some of them will be, or already will be, involved in their own stealthy part of the continuously developing global currency war.

No doubt, at least in my opinion, whatever occurs, the U.S. dollar will remain king in 2015 and nicely well beyond that, which doesn’t mean, of course, forever.

That said, in 2015, one of the very important questions should probably become as the year comes on, how much will e.g. the euro, the Japanese yen, the Chinese renminbi (yuan), the Brazilian real and practical all oil and commodity direct related currencies, which include the Canadian dollar, the Norwegian kroner, but also the Australian dollar, etc. further weaken against the U.S. dollar and more importantly at what speed?

Also, volatility is on its way back and when it strikes, it will cause real havoc in many, known and still unknown places.

I personally would prefer to stay away from all that is not dollar denominated and/or U.S. located investments as long as there do not appear clear signs of stabilization starting taking hold in many places in the world and above all in Europe, which is certainly not the case today.

If you are for the most part invested in the U.S. and in the U.S. dollar, stay where you are.

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HansParisis
I personally would prefer to stay away from all that is not dollar denominated and/or U.S. located investments as long as there do not appear clear signs of stabilization starting taking hold in many places in the world and above all in Europe, which is certainly not the case today.
dollar, united states, investing, economy
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2014-54-19
Friday, 19 Dec 2014 06:54 AM
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