Don’t count on major banks for any loans, says J.P. Morgan. Large-cap banks have put a lid on lending and are accumulating cash against anticipated credit losses.
“Key changes seen thus far in the fourth quarter for large banks are the slowdown in growth in securities and the large 28 percent quarter-over-quarter increase in cash,” J.P. according to a recent research note from J.P. Morgan analysts, reported The Wall Street Journal online.
“…Loans continue to decline at a little faster rate led mainly by construction and industrial loans and also to some extent residential mortgages,” the note said.
“We expect this shift will hurt net interest income into 2010,” warned the analysis, which also cut earnings estimates for some of the biggest U.S. banks.
Although major banks that received federal bailout money were expected to boost lending to stimulate the economy, they’re hoarding cash instead and are now awaiting the next anticipated credit disaster: the long-predicted commercial real estate collapse.
Among the banks cited by J.P. Morgan for an expected reduction in earnings were Bank of America Corp. (BAC), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), Regions Financial Corp. (RF), SunTrust Banks Inc. (STI) and Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC).
But the JP Morgan forecast isn’t all gloomy. Credit card early delinquencies are “stabilizing” and charge offs are declining for securitized debt.
Despite the moderately bleak outlook for banks, financial stocks in the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index were up more than 136 percent over the March low as of November 30.
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