Tags: recession

Roach: 33 Percent Chance of Double-Dip Recession

By Dan Weil   |   Tuesday, 15 Sep 2009 11:28 AM

Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, said the odds of a U.S.-led “relapse” into global recession may be as high as one-in-three.

He told Bloomberg that any additional shock to U.S. consumer demand could create such a scenario.

“The consumer is still dead money, the consumer is not coming back,” Roach said. “I’d put the relapse odds one-in-four, maybe as high as one-in-three,” referring to the possibility of a double-dip global recession.

Economies rebounding from the downturn require a “growth cushion” to avoid the dreaded double dip, Roach says.

The consumer sector certainly has suffered plenty since the credit crisis began two years ago.

The vicious drop in home values and stock prices has created a record $13.9 trillion loss in U.S. household wealth since mid-2007, according to Bloomberg.

That dynamic makes it more difficult for the economy to rebound from its worst slump in 70 years.

“The recovery is going to be so anemic, especially in the United States, that the economy on an underlying basis is going to be a lot closer to the stall speed than would be the case in a normal V-shaped recovery,” Roach said.

PIMCO Chief Investment Officer Bill Gross sees a good chance of a double-dip recession too. As the government pulls back from its massive fiscal stimulus, “then the double-dip moves into the realm of possibility," he told CNBC.

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Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, said the odds of a U.S.-led “relapse” into global recession may be as high as one-in-three.He told Bloomberg that any additional shock to U.S. consumer demand could create such a scenario. “The consumer is still dead money,...
recession
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2009-28-15
 

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