Tags: ORourke | S&P 500 | 1500 | economic

Jones Trading's O'Rourke: S&P 500 Headed to 1,500 or Lower

By    |   Monday, 12 Aug 2013 08:49 AM

Stocks remain near record highs, but earnings and economic growth don't justify current levels, says Mike O'Rourke, chief market strategist for Jones Trading.

"I think we'll go to 1,500 or below" for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index in the next six to 12 months, he told CNBC. "A lot of this rally has been a multiple-expansion rally."

Indeed the S&P 500's price-earnings ratio, based on earnings forecasts for the next 12 months, sits at 14.5, an almost-four-year high, according to FactSet.

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"We know earnings are up, but most of that growth came in 2010," O'Rourke explained. "Even this year's been a better earnings year, but we see a lot of low quality earnings beats. And I think the market does see that."

Economic growth isn't strong enough to sustain stocks at current levels either, he says. "From 1928, 1930 to 2000, the U.S. economy grew 3 to 3½ percent a year," he said. "Since 2000, we've grown 1.7 percent a year. Even if you forget about the Great Recession, you go to 2007, we grew at 2½ percent a year."

GPD expanded at an average of 1.4 percent a quarter in the first half of this year.

"There's so many uncertainties out there," O'Rourke noted. "I view my job as measuring risk vs. opportunity, and I see a lot of risk that can unfold in the second half of this year that people seem to be ignoring for the time being."

Others don't think fundamentals call for higher stock prices either.

"The market is at least fairly valued," Ivo Weinoehrl, a fund manager at Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management in Frankfurt, told Bloomberg.

"You've seen a huge multiple expansion in the S&P over the past two years. I don't see much upside left from a purely fundamental point of view."

Editor’s Note: 399% Stock Market Rally Predicted (Buy These 4 Stocks Now)

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Economy
Stocks remain near record highs, but earnings and economic growth don't justify current levels, says Mike O'Rourke, chief market strategist for Jones Trading.
ORourke,S&P 500,1500,economic
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2013-49-12
Monday, 12 Aug 2013 08:49 AM
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