Tags: bogle | slow | recovery

Experts: Slower Recovery Will Hurt Investors

By Dan Weil   |   Friday, 19 Jun 2009 11:41 AM

A group of investment luminaries say the economy will rebound slowly, creating problems for investors.

They tell CNBC that recovery will probably begin in the third quarter.

"The recovery's going to be slow, and I think for the next relatively long period of years we're going to be thinking normal growth in the U.S. is more like 2 percent rather than 3 percent," says Vanguard Group Founder John Bogle.

Policy changes make life difficult for investors, Bob Doll, vice chairman of BlackRock, told CNBC. "Predicting what politicians (are) going to do is very difficult,” he says.

"Therefore, I think risk levels are somewhat higher. Volatility is likely to remain higher during this period where the government is so interventionist.”

“That's not a good thing for required rates of return and for markets, so I'd like to see some exit plans for all this good stuff," Doll says.

The stock market’s rebound will draw investors back into the fray, says Goldman Sachs analyst Abby Joseph Cohen, famous for her prescient calls for stock gains in the 1990s and not-so prescient calls for stock gains in the early 2000s.

Still, she says stock rallies will be slow. "We have forgotten what it's like to exit from a real bear market,” she tells CNBC.

“That typically happens in stages. We have now had the first phase, which is a sigh-of-relief rally."

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A group of investment luminaries say the economy will rebound slowly, creating problems for investors.They tell CNBC that recovery will probably begin in the third quarter."The recovery's going to be slow, and I think for the next relatively long period of years we're going...
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