Tags: Spetrino | Romney | Obama | lies

There Are 3 Kinds of Lies: Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

By    |   Friday, 28 Sep 2012 07:40 AM

As a person who has become financially independent by being a professional investor, I understand perfectly how the media, politicians, colleges and corporate America use statistics to influence you into believing whatever they are “selling."

My success resides in the fact that I can distinguish reality from what I am actually being sold.

Most people in America know very little about how statistics can be “gamed" and are economically illiterate.

Editor's Note: Small-Town Ohio Accountant Uses Simple Forgotten Secret to Help Investors Pocket Millions

Selfishly, that has helped me be the first in my family to avoid doing sustained physical labor, but I digress.

An example of a manipulation of statistics is a recent presidential poll in Florida. The poll found President Barack Obama was leading GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney 53 percent to 44 percent in the state.

However, when you look at the fine print, the breakdown is: Obama leads Romney 94 percent to 5 percent among Democrats, Romney leads Obama 91 percent to 7 percent among Republicans and Romney leads Obama 49 percent to 46 percent among Independents

So, obviously there must have been at least 10 percent more Democrats surveyed than Republicans to get Obama up by 9 percent.

Now, when you question the validity of this poll, the defenders will say that they are using 2008 national numbers of Republicans, Democrats and Independents.

However, in 2008, the party breakdown in the state of Florida was 38 percent Democrat, 34 percent Republican and 29 percent Independent.

Assuming the president is as popular as he was in 2008, which every major poll shows is untrue, and using the 2008 numbers of Democrats, Republicans and Independents in Florida, the poll would show Obama leading Romney 50.5 percent to 47 percent, which is a 3.5 percent differential. MUCH different than the 9 percent differential reported.

And if the proportion in the state is 37 percent Democrat, 36 percent Republican and 27 percent Independent, which my personal research says is most likely, the poll would show Obama still ahead, but by a margin of 49.7 percent to 47.8 percent, which is 1.9 percent, not 9 percent.

Editor's Note: Small-Town Ohio Accountant Uses Simple Forgotten Secret to Help Investors Pocket Millions

To be fair no one knows which party will vote in great numbers, and as many investors know, it is impossible to know what a company's REAL earnings will be.

This article was not meant as an insult or an indictment of anyone's polling data.

But remember there are lies, damn lies and statistics.

About the Author: Bill Spetrino Bill Spetrino is a member of the Moneynews Financial Brain Trust. Click Here to read more of his articles. He is also the editor of the Dividend Machine. Discover more by Clicking Here Now.

© 2017 Newsmax Finance. All rights reserved.

 
1Like our page
2Share
BillSpetrino
Most people in America know very little about how statistics can be “gamed" and are economically illiterate.
Spetrino,Romney,Obama,lies
464
2012-40-28
Friday, 28 Sep 2012 07:40 AM
Newsmax Inc.
 

Newsmax, Moneynews, Newsmax Health, and Independent. American. are registered trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc. Newsmax TV, and Newsmax World are trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc.

NEWSMAX.COM
MONEYNEWS.COM
© Newsmax Media, Inc.
All Rights Reserved