Tags: Elliott Gue | Oil | Rally | Price

Newsletter Editor Gue to Moneynews: Oil's Rally is Nearly Tapped Out

Sunday, 21 Jul 2013 09:49 PM

By David Nelson and Dan Weil

U.S. crude oil prices are unlikely to move much higher over the next two months, after soaring 16 percent over the past four weeks, says Elliott Gue, editor of Energy & Income Advisor newsletter.

The increase essentially represents a catch-up to international Brent crude prices, Gue tells
Newsmax TV in an exclusive interview.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) August crude futures settled at $108.05 on the Nymex Friday, while September Brent crude futures settled at $108.07 on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange.

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"We're going to see some strength continue for the next couple of months, but, generally
speaking, we're close to the top end of the range for crude oil prices," Gue said.

"The main reason for that is we're seeing diminishing geopolitical risks in places like Egypt, as well as the fact that the supply and demand fundamentals don’t really support crude oil prices quite this high."

Editor's Note: Economist Warns: ‘Money From Heaven a Path to Hell.’ See Evidence.

U.S. economic sluggishness will limit demand for crude, Gue says. He and other economists expect growth of less than 2 percent for the first half of the year.

As for the gap between Brent and WTI, at the end of last year, WTI traded at a discount of more than $20 a barrel to Brent.

So why the shift?

The last couple of years have seen a surge of shale oil production in places such as the Bakken Shale in North Dakota, Eagle Ford in southern Texas and the Permian Basin in west Texas, Gue says.

"A lot of that crude oil has actually made its way into the middle of the country," he said. Cushing, Okla., is the official delivery point for WTI.

"What happened over the last couple of years is a lot of that oil has made its way via pipeline to Cushing, but there's not a lot of pipeline capacity to move that oil from Cushing to Houston or other places on the Gulf Coast," Gue said.

Clearly more pipeline capacity is needed between Cushing and the Gulf Coast, and some pipelines are beginning to open up, Gue says.

"One is the Seaway Pipeline. It used to run from the Gulf Coast up to Cushing. The idea was to bring crude that was imported into the United States north to Cushing," he said.

"Now, they’ve reversed the flow of that pipeline because there's so much oil in Cushing that they need to get down to the Gulf Coast, and there are very few imports of oil coming in through the Gulf Coast."

In addition, some midwestern refineries, such as BP's in Whiting, Ind., are expanding capacity, Gue says. "It's located in the middle of the country and therefore has access to all of that cheap crude from places like North Dakota," he said.

But more pipeline capacity is still needed, Gue says. "For example, if you look at California, there's almost no pipeline capacity with the rest of the U.S. This is totally amazing."

Editor's Note: Economist Warns: ‘Money From Heaven a Path to Hell.’ See Evidence.

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