Tags: David Gurwitz | gold | recovery | 2 | 000

Charles Nenner's Gurwitz to Moneynews: Gold Set for Long-Term Recovery to $2,000

By Dan Weil   |   Wednesday, 03 Jul 2013 07:04 AM

Gold may just have endured its worst quarter in at least 45 years, but the long-term outlook remains bright, says David Gurwitz, managing director of Charles Nenner Research.

"The volatility may not have come to an end yet because cycles are bottoming in several weeks," he told Newsmax TV in an exclusive interview. "But if they [investors] can hold on, they will see that gold and silver will go up again."

Gurwitz doesn't have a gold forecast for the rest of the year yet, "but longer-term we have a target above $2,000, so it'll go back to its highs." The precious metal hit a record peak of $1,921 in September 2011.

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Despite gold's 23 percent plunge in the second quarter, plenty of people still hold it, Gurwitz says. "A lot of people own gold, and they didn't sell it, the actual gold and silver itself," he said.

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"It's clearly shaking everybody, . . . because while it's going up, you don't think it's going down. . . . [Gold] has lost its appeal, and that's probably why it's a very good time to buy it.

As for other financial markets, Gurwitz is bearish on stocks and bonds.

"Bonds have had a 30-year bull market," he noted. "Obviously, rates went from 18 percent 30 years ago, and now they're down to almost nothing."

So what's next? "Long-term, bonds are going the other way [down,]" Gurwitz said.

"So people have to start thinking about actually being short bonds however they do it — not yet, but soon — for quite a while. And that's something that takes practice and planning for because no one ever really did that much in the last 30 years."

When it comes to stocks, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index is now in a trading range between 1,500 and about 1,715, Gurwitz says. The S&P 500 closed at 1,614 Tuesday.

"But longer-term, the stock market's down for many, many years. So with stocks down many years and bonds down many years, gold will be a longer-term [buy,]" Gurwitz said.

As for copper, it's "more an indication of the economy," Gurwitz said. "It's near a short-term bottom, but longer-term, it's still down."

On the currency front, the dollar is strong now, Gurwitz points out. The Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against six other major currencies, has gained 5.6 percent since Feb. 1. "But, starting next year, the dollar is going to really weaken significantly," he said.

Asked what could derail the global economy, Gurwitz responded, "I'll say one thing that people are not used to hearing. There were war cycles, war cycles going back thousands of years."

And that's happening now, he says. "These things could become much greater, and that's something that could cause crude prices to go up. . . . Given what we see economically, it's not going to be good."

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