Obamacare is going to crash and burn whether it is repealed or not.
It is a risk factor that will be impacting investments in every portfolio. Yet, this may be the first time you are reading about it.
Even now, millions of dollars are being spent by private industry in order to prepare for expected compliance. The government will be spending billions of your tax dollars.
The Democrats expect that Obamacare will be so entrenched by November that it will just be immune from any Republican attacks.
Republicans are confident that if they win in November, they will be able to repeal Obamacare and replace it with some yet-unknown national healthcare system.
What the Democrats, Republicans and the legions of professional advisers, economists, pundits and other self-anointed experts have failed to come to grips with is that Obamacare will be a failure because of the governmental bureaucracy itself.
It is already becoming apparent that this happening.
Let's look at this in terms of the reality of our collective experiences.
What governmental program affecting the entire nation in the past 60 years has, in fact, "worked?" What has "worked" in just the past four years?
Various governmental reports, from the Government Accountability Office (GAO) to the Office of the Inspector General, as well as the government's own data, tell a clear and unambiguous story.
Whatever the government does, it does badly. In fact, failure is the norm when it comes to major Congressional legislation.
William E. Simon, the highly respected and blatantly straightforward Secretary of the Treasury under Presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford, in 1978 wrote "A Time for Truth," a book that he hoped would wake up America.
He describes, as an example, the passage in Congress of a central Carter program, energy in this case, as a "...circus freak. But its trip through the plastic surgery on Capitol Hill turned it into something even more hideous and preposterous."
He quotes The Wall Street Journal: "We now have a giant energy bureaucracy that not only rations scarcity, but creates scarcity, thus providing an excuse for its own existence."
Simon goes on to say: "Government grins because it knows how easy it is to pull something over on us. We have become a nation of abdicators — abdicating the education of our children to an army of social reformers; abdicating the incredible productivity of the free market to redistributionist zealots; abdicating our hopes for old age to a computer that spits out government checks worth less and less in real dollars with each passing month. Weary of vigilance, we are abdicating our very right to govern. And thus we leave a terrible vacuum in which government grows."
Nothing has changed since 1978. With Obamacare, we are now abdicating the responsibility for our own health and that of our children.
This latest horror coming from Capitol Hill has no hope of being the first successful major program in modern times.
Obamacare will fail because the Washington bureaucracy has no real ability to administer it and the medical profession will not be able to fulfill the delivery of services.
Heroically as the Internal Revenue Service tries, the Democrats in Congress and the Obama administration have placed on it an unyielding and unsupportable burden.
Not that the Republicans made much effort previously to effectively deal with the growing national health issues.
The IRS is already, as the GAO, the Taxpayer Ombudsman and the Inspector General of the Treasury have repeatedly reported, facing continuing systemic problems.
Basically, like the taxpayers, the IRS is overwhelmed with the complexity of the tax law.
With the added burden of now trying to administer the Foreign Account Compliance Tax Act (FACTA), it is beyond the ability of any bureaucracy to oversee all that Capitol Hill has commanded even if this was a perfect world.
Obamacare is the means to establish a government-controlled health insurance program. It is not directed to the actual delivery of medical services.
In 1985, Leonard Peikoff gave a lecture (published in the Objectivist Forum) on the impact of Medicare and Medicaid. It was titled "Medicine: The Death of a Profession."
We are now being told by the Association of Medical Colleges that by 2015 there will be a shortage of 63,000 doctors. By 2020, the shortage will be 91,500.
The best and the brightest are not necessarily going to medical school. The medical profession, as Peikoff said, is dying.
Even if 100 percent of Americans have insurance coverage under Obamacare, there will not be an ability to deliver needed medical services.
As Capitol Hill has always done, the bureaucracy created not only will ration scarcity, but it will create it as well.
As the realization that Obamacare is crashing, the already volatile markets and uncertainty surrounding them will get even uglier and more dangerous.
To financially survive, get prepared by adjusting your outlook and investment strategies now.
More Posts by Denis Kleinfeld
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