Tags: stock | rally

Dorfman: Stock Rally Continues Until 2010

By Ellen Chang   |   Wednesday, 15 Jul 2009 12:09 PM

Money manager John Dorfman said the rally in the market will last until the beginning of 2010, the Asbury Park Press reported.

The economy is improving and will help sustain the rally, he said.

“To be sure, not all signs point to the rally continuing,” Dorfman wrote in the Asbury Park Press.

“On balance though, I think the evidence favors continued gains, pockmarked with occasional rude interruptions.”

The economy is showing some positive signs with the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators rising in April and May.

“Specific items I find encouraging are monthly auto sales for U.S.-made cars (up 14 percent since February), building permits (up 4 percent in May after being down in nine of the previous 10 months), and the pattern of interest rates, often called the yield curve (which is normalizing),” Dorfman said.

Stock valuations are “normal,” he said. In addition, the Standard & Poor’s 500 is being sold for 14.5 times earnings and the Treasury yields are low, he said.

“What happens after that depends on how forceful, and how lasting, the recovery is,” Dorfman said. “An onerous federal deficit, high personal debt, a persistent fall in home prices, or ripple effects from high unemployment could all keep a damper on the recovery, or shorten it.”

Economic conditions appear to be improving and investors are embracing it.

“A few months ago a lot of people thought the world was coming to an end,” said James Swanson, chief investment strategist at MFS, a fund manager in Boston, the New York Times reported. “Now they’re dancing in the streets and going out to restaurants.”

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