Credit-default swap prices from Turkey to Indonesia are falling as bonds rise, signaling that emerging economies are recovering faster than their developed counterparts, Bloomberg reports.
The reason? Investors fleeing emerging markets in search of theoretically safer investments in industrialized nations.
Now, developing economies are leading the markets back with gains of almost 50 percent, making Russia a better investing bet than California.
Indeed, as the U.S. and U.K. borrow record amounts to fund bank bailouts and stimulus, Brazil, Russia, India and China have $3 trillion in reserves — up 19 percent from January 2008 and now 43 percent of the worldwide total.
The annual cost of protecting holdings in Turkey’s bonds fell by half to $200,000 per $10 million for five years, or 200 basis points, sinking below New York City swaps for two weeks starting July 22.
Indonesia debt insurance dropped below Michigan the next day. Brazil swaps just had their biggest four-month slide ever.
For China, protection is near the cheapest in a year. Eleven years after Russia defaulted, investors want less to insure its debt than California’s.
Emerging market equities ticked up on Monday with particular gains in Romania and Hungary, while a new report suggested a sharp rise in business confidence among the BRIC countries, Reuters reports.
Yield spreads between emerging market sovereign debt and U.S. Treasuries were little changed, although Ukraine's widened 6 basis points.
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