Tags: Shiller | stock | market | bubble

Experts: What Stock Market Bubble?

Monday, 18 Nov 2013 08:49 AM

By Dan Weil


While major stock market indexes stand at record highs, many experts don't view the market as a bubble.

Nobel laureate economist Robert Shiller is one of them. He correctly forecast the stock bubble of the late 1990s and the real estate bubble of the mid-2000s.

Now, "the market is somewhat high, but it's not a time when I would be writing 'Irrational Exuberance,'" Shiller told The Wall Street Journal. He was referring to his 2000 book that predicted the stock market crash to come.

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Shiller says his favored price-earnings (P/E) ratio, which uses 10-year average earnings, indicates stocks are expensive rather than bubbly, according to The Journal.

Shiller's P/E ratio now totals about 24.5 for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, well above the 16.5 average since 1881, but well below the 44 peak level of the Internet bubble in 2000.

Others say bubble fears are exaggerated too.

"I'm frankly a little floored that so many people are asking about a bubble," Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told The Journal. "Maybe because we've had two ferocious bubbles recently, we're more in tune with the possibility."

There are certainly plenty of bulls around too.

"The combination of earnings growth and expanded P/E due to investors feeling better about things just continues to move the market higher," John Fox, director of research at Fenimore Asset Management in Cobleskill, N.Y., told Bloomberg.

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Related Stories:

David Stockman: Bubbles Brewing Here, There, Everywhere

Pimco's Bill Gross: The Stock Market and Asset Prices Are 'Bubbly'

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