Tags: Schoenberger | Romney | bull | market

BlackBay’s Schoenberger: Romney Win Would Spark Bull Market for Stocks

By Dan Weil   |   Friday, 07 Sep 2012 08:40 AM

The economy and stock market will fare better if Mitt Romney wins the presidential election, says Todd Schoenberger, managing principal of The BlackBay Group.

Presidential contests generally don’t affect the economy, but it’s different this time around, he tells Yahoo.

“You look at the current administration, and you have the word uncertainty. It’s driving me crazy — it’s like kicking the can down the road.”

Editor's Note: Economist Unapologetically Calls Out Bernanke, Obama for Mishandling Economy. See What They Did

Corporations are sitting on more than $1 trillion of cash reserves, unwilling to invest, Schoenberger says.

"If you have the GOP that takes over the White House, you're going to have companies that are going to feel a little more secure,” he says.

“Therefore you can only assume that money will be put to work. In that case it’s great for stocks."

The first presidential debate, scheduled for Oct. 3, will finally force the candidates to present substantive solutions for our economic woes, Schoenberger says. After then, he sees Romney pulling ahead.

“If that’s the case, that’s when you want to go long this market,” he says.

“I think the S&P 500 goes through the roof in the first six months of next year with a Romney presidency.”

To be sure, if the stock market remains strong, Romney might lose.

In 80 percent of the presidential elections since 1900, when the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose in the three months prior to Election Day, the incumbent won, according to S&P Capital IQ.

Editor's Note: Economist Unapologetically Calls Out Bernanke, Obama for Mishandling Economy. See What They Did

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